Winter Isn’t a Waiting Room

Mortgage rates have quietly done something powerful this fall and early winter: they’ve stayed near 6% for weeks on end. That’s helped push mortgage purchase applications to their highest level in almost three years and driven a multi-year high in pending home sales, according to HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami’s Dec. 6, 2025 article, “December housing demand near 3-year high as spreads improve.”

At the same time, active inventory is still running above last year’s levels, even as we move into the normal seasonal slowdown where listings gradually decline into January. That combination—more buyers in the pipeline and a bit more inventory to choose from—has cooled price growth and kept price cuts elevated compared to 2024, giving buyers somewhat better deals.

In other words: this winter market isn’t “dead.” It’s just different—and smart sellers can use that to their advantage.

What the Data Is Really Saying

Mohtashami highlights a few key trends shaping December and the early part of 2026:

• Rates below a key threshold: Mortgage rates have stayed under roughly 6.64% for about 18 weeks, hovering near 6%. Historically, that’s the line in the sand where purchase applications start to improve.

• Demand is building, not fading: We’ve seen a long stretch of double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase applications and a multi-year high in pending home sales with rates near 6%.

• Inventory is healthier but seasonal: Inventory is still up year-over-year, but the rate of growth has slowed as demand picked up and we hit the usual winter fade in new listings.

• More price cuts than last year: With more active inventory than the “starved” markets of 2022–2023, sellers are using price adjustments more often, which is helping buyers negotiate better terms.

For sellers, this isn’t a “wait until spring or you missed it” setup. It’s a balanced, data-driven environment where strategy matters more than timing alone.

How Home Sellers Should Treat the Next 30–60 Days

If you’re thinking about selling between now and early February, here’s how to play this market:

1. Don’t assume winter means “no buyers.” The data says the opposite: buyer demand is near a three-year high right now thanks to improved mortgage spreads and more stable rates. Serious buyers are still writing offers in December and January—they just have fewer homes to choose from as many sellers sit on the sidelines.

2. Lean into seasonal inventory, not against it. As we move deeper into winter, inventory typically drifts lower. In a year where buyers are more active, listing during this seasonal dip can actually mean less competition for your home versus waiting for a crowded spring market.

3. Price for today’s reality, not yesterday’s headlines. With price growth slowing and price cuts more common, over-reaching on your list price is more likely to backfire. A well-supported price based on fresh comps will attract the buyers who are already in the system and watching for new listings this month.

4. Be flexible on terms rather than chasing the perfect number. Rate-sensitive buyers care about payment more than price alone. Seller credits toward closing costs or modest rate buydowns can make your home stand out without necessarily slashing the contract price.

5. Use January as your “launch window,” not a holding pattern. If you need a few weeks to prep—paint, small repairs, staging—aim to hit the market in early to mid-January, when many buyers recommit to their home search but inventory is still relatively thin.

Final Thought

The headline for this winter isn’t “wait until spring.” It’s: “Serious buyers are active, and balanced inventory is giving them options—make sure your home is one of them.”

If you’re considering a move in the next 30–60 days and want to see how these national trends line up with your local market and price range, let’s connect. I’m happy to walk through the numbers so you can decide whether selling this winter makes sense for you.

Market data and analysis referenced from HousingWire, particularly Logan Mohtashami’s Dec. 6, 2025 article, “December housing demand near 3-year high as spreads improve,” and related Housing Market Tracker coverage.HousingWire+2HousingWire+2