How I’m Advising Buyers and Sellers in 2026: A Strategic Playbook for Today’s Housing Market

by Eric English

The 2026 housing market is not behaving the way most people expect.

Rates are lower than they’ve been in years. Headlines say inventory is “back.” And yet many buyers still feel like there’s nothing to choose from — while many sellers worry they’ve missed their moment.

Both things can be true at the same time.

My job in this market is not to pick a side. It’s to help both buyers and sellers understand where leverage actually sits — and how to use it.

To do that, I’m paying close attention to what’s happening nationally, especially data coming from Logan Mohtashami at HousingWire, whose weekly Housing Market Tracker has become one of the most reliable early indicators of where this market is headed.

Here’s what matters most as we enter 2026.

1. Inventory Is Still Growing — But the Story Has Changed

Last year, housing inventory was surging. At one point, national inventory was growing at 33% year-over-year.

That story is over.

As of January 11, 2026, inventory growth has slowed to 9.99% year-over-year — officially back into single-digit territory.
(HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami, Jan 11, 2026)

That matters for one big reason:
Mortgage rates are now near 6%.

When rates fall into the low-6% range, demand comes back. Not all at once — but enough to slow down how fast new homes pile up on the market.

Logan put it this way:

“When mortgage rates fall below 6.64% and head toward 6%, housing demand improves… which can keep a lid on inventory growth in 2026.”

In practical terms:
Inventory isn’t crashing. But it’s no longer flooding the market either.

2. New Listings Are Still Historically Low

One of the biggest misunderstandings right now is that we have “plenty of homes.”

We don’t.

Last week, the U.S. only saw 39,007 new listings, compared to 44,639 this same week last year.
(HousingWire, Jan 11, 2026)

To put that in perspective, a healthy market normally runs 80,000–100,000 new listings per week during peak season.

We are not even halfway there.

That’s why I tell my sellers this:
You are not competing against an oversupply of homes — you’re competing against buyer psychology.

And psychology shifts quickly when rates drop.

3. Price Cuts Are Normal — Not a Crash Signal

About 34.7% of homes currently have price reductions, almost identical to last year.
(HousingWire, Jan 11, 2026)

In a normal market, about one-third of listings adjust their price.

This is not panic.
This is price discovery.

What’s different in 2026 is that supply is no longer the main driver of pricing. Demand will decide who wins.

Logan’s national forecast is a -0.62% price decline for 2026 — essentially flat — assuming inventory grows at last year’s pace.

But here’s the catch:

“If inventory growth slows and rates remain 6.25% or lower, that forecast is most likely incorrect.”

Translation:
If rates stay near 6% and inventory keeps tightening, prices will not fall the way many expect.

That’s why strategy matters more than timing.

4. Mortgage Rates: The Real Story Is the Bond Market

Housing isn’t being driven by the Fed anymore — it’s being driven by mortgage spreads and the 10-year Treasury.

HousingWire’s 2026 forecast is:

Mortgage rates: 5.75% – 6.75%
10-year Treasury: 3.80% – 4.60%
(HousingWire 2026 Forecast)

Mortgage spreads — the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates — are almost back to normal after being wildly inflated in 2023.

Logan explains it best:

“If spreads were as bad as they were in 2023, rates would be over 7% today — not near 6%.”

That’s why buyers suddenly feel like the market woke up.

5. What This Means for Buyers in Central Florida

If you’re waiting for a crash, you’re watching the wrong data.

Inventory is no longer accelerating.
Rates are no longer choking demand.
New listings are still below normal.

That combination historically creates short buying windows — not long ones.

My buyers in 2026 need to think in terms of:

Targeting homes that have already taken price cuts
Locking in deals before demand ramps up in spring
Negotiating based on days-on-market, not headlines

This is how you buy value before the crowd realizes what changed.

6. What This Means for Sellers

You don’t need a 2021 frenzy to win.

You need:

Correct pricing from Day One
Smart positioning
And understanding that demand is quietly rebuilding under the surface

Because when mortgage rates move from 7% to 6%, buyer psychology changes far more than people expect.

This market rewards clarity, not optimism.

Why I Track This Data for My Clients

I don’t follow this data because it’s interesting.

I follow it because:

It tells us when buyers get leverage
It tells us when sellers regain control
And it tells us when most people are still using last year’s assumptions

In 2026, the biggest risk for both sides is using 2023 thinking in a 2026 market.

And that’s where my job begins.

Sources: Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire Housing Market Tracker & 2026 Forecast, January 11, 2026