Watching National Spring Home Buying Trends and Their Impact on Central Florida

The national spring home-buying season often serves as a trendsetter for regional real estate markets, including Central Florida. While every local market has its unique dynamics, keeping an eye on national trends allows realtors to advise buyers and sellers better. Recent data suggests that the 2025 spring buying season may have started earlier than usual, a trend worth exploring in the context of our local market.

Early Spring Demand in 2025

Nationally, the spring home-buying season appears to have kicked off as early as November 2024, based on weekly pending contract data from Altos Research. This data shows consistent year-over-year growth in pending home sales, even amidst elevated mortgage rates. For example, weekly pending sales reached 260,329 in early 2025, up from 247,652 during the same period in 2024 and 231,127 in 2023.

This early demand is partly attributed to the adaptability of homebuyers navigating higher mortgage rates and leveraging the relatively stable mortgage spreads. Although Central Florida’s market may not mirror these exact figures, the rise in early spring activity nationally could signal a similar trend locally, particularly given our region’s growing appeal to out-of-state buyers.

The Role of Mortgage Rates and Spreads

Mortgage rates remain a critical factor shaping buyer behavior. Nationally, mortgage rates have hovered between 7.25% and 5.75%, with fluctuations influenced by labor market data and bond yields. Improved mortgage spreads in 2024 prevented even higher rates, making home buying more accessible than it might have been otherwise.

For Central Florida, where affordability is a key concern, stable mortgage spreads are equally vital. Local buyers often depend on competitive rates to enter the market, and the stabilization observed nationally could help sustain demand in our area through the spring season.

Inventory Trends

National housing inventory continues to be a challenge. As of early January 2025, inventory stood at 635,432, down from 650,992 the previous week. While inventory typically bottoms out between March and April, these numbers are far below pre-pandemic levels. For comparison, the same week in 2015 saw 959,028 active listings.

In Central Florida, for years inventory was a persistent issue, contributing to upward pressure on home prices. Sellers in our region should recognize the importance of timing; listing earlier in the spring could capitalize on strong demand and reduce competition.

Price Trends and Buyer Behavior

Nationally, approximately 34.9% of homes experienced price cuts at the start of 2025, reflecting a typical seasonal adjustment. However, when mortgage rates decrease, demand tends to rise, stabilizing or increasing home prices. Central Florida’s market could mirror these national trends. As such, buyers should act decisively, while sellers may consider strategic pricing to maximize their opportunities.

Implications for Central Florida

While Central Florida’s market has unique drivers, such as its appeal to retirees and vacation homebuyers, national trends provide valuable context. Early spring demand, stable mortgage spreads, and inventory challenges suggest a dynamic market ahead. Here are some actionable takeaways:

1. For Buyers: Monitor mortgage rate trends and act quickly on desirable properties. Early demand may limit options later in the season.

2. For Sellers: Listing earlier in the year could help capitalize on heightened buyer interest and reduced competition.

The spring home-buying season is shaping up to be another competitive one. By leveraging both national insights and local expertise, we can help our clients make better decisions.

Source: HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami, "Has spring housing demand already started? That would explain some of the recent firm pending contract data," January 4, 2025.